Thünen GitLab - DMZ

Skip to content

Changes

Page history
Update 2.3 Animal Numbers authored by Claus Rösemann's avatar Claus Rösemann
Show whitespace changes
Inline Side-by-side
2-Input-data/2.3-Animal-Numbers.md
View page @ 9e193b8e
......@@ -10,7 +10,9 @@ The German inventory uses a time step of one year as there is no data available
# Official surveys
The Federal Statistical Office and the Statistical Agencies of the federal states carry out agricultural structure surveys in order to collect, along with other data, the head counts of cattle, pigs, sheep, horses (from 2010 onwards: equids) and poultry. These agricultural structure surveys took place every other year for the years 1990 – 1996 and 1999 – 2007, in the year 2010 in the context of the more comprehensive 2010 agricultural census (LZ 2010), 2013, 2016 and 2020 in the context of the more comprehensive 2020 agricultural census (LZ 2020). The Surveys 1990, 1994 and 1996 referenced to 3 December, while the surveys 1999 – 2007 referenced to 3 May. The surveys 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020 referenced to 1 March. In addition to the agricultural structure surveys, annual animal head count censuses are carried out ([StatBA FS3 R4.1](/9%20Literature#statba-fs3-r41-statistisches-bundesamt-annual-reports)). Up to and including 1998 these censuses took place every six months for cattle and sheep (June, December), every four months for pigs (April, August, December), and in even years in December for all animal categories, i. e. also for horses and poultry. Reference day was always the third day of the respective month. Since 1999 the animal head count censuses for cattle and pigs take place two times a year: 3 May and 3 November. For sheep the reference day was 3 May in 1999 - 2009, 3 November in 2010, and 1 March in subsequent years. For cattle, pigs, and sheep official animal numbers are available for all years since 1990. This means that the inventories up to and including 1998 used the data collected in December (in June for sheep), while afterwards the inventories up to and including 2010 used the data from May (sheep: 1 March 2010 as no data were available in May or November). Accoding to the Federal Statistical Office the animal numbers for the inventories from 2011 onwards have to be referenced to November. These figures are in keeping with the figures the Federal Statistical Office has provided to EUROSTAT. The change in the reference date (to 3 November) does not significantly affect the population figures of cattle and swine. Among the figures for sheep, livestock-population figures had to be corrected; cf. Chapter 4.1.1.1 The numbers of goats in Germany were not surveyed between 1977 and 2010. Until 2004, the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) estimated goat populations at the national level. As of 2005, the pertinent time series was continued via estimation by the Federal Statistical Office. In 2010, the total number of goats was officially determined for the first time (reference day: 1 March), in the framework of the 2010 agricultural census (LZ 2010). That figure is considerably lower than the estimates used for earlier years. By agreement with the Federal Statistical Office, those estimates, which are also reported to EUROSTAT, continue to be used in the inventory. For 2013, 2016 and 2020 the Federal Statistical Office provided goat-population figures (reference day: 1 March). For horses/equids, and for poultry, population figures are available only at intervals of two to three years, from agricultural structure surveys (reference dates: 1990 - 1998, 3 December; 1999 – 2007, 3 May; 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020, 1 March). By agreement with the Federal Statistical Office, the population figures have not been adjusted to take account for the variations in reference dates. In previous surveys (in 2010 for the last time) significant numbers of poultry had not been counted as they were held by companies that did not need to report poultry numbers. Hence, the rules of poultry counting were adjusted for the 2013 survey. As a consequence, the official 2013 poultry numbers are much higher than to be expected after the trend in earlier years. As the Federal Statistical Office do not intend to correct poultry numbes of earlier years, the poultry numbers used in the inventory exhibit a steep upward trend between 2010 and 2013. This trend does not reflect any real development in poultry numbers due to the different numbers of animals collected for 2010 and 2013. The increase in poultry numbers from 2013 to 2016 is significantly flatter. For the calculation of the inventory, data gaps had to be closed and the given figures of animal places had partly to be modified to meet the requirements of emission reporting. This is discussed below, along with the way of how buffalo, asses and mules are accounted for.
The Federal Statistical Office and the Statistical Agencies of the federal states carry out agricultural structure surveys in order to collect, along with other data, the head counts of cattle, pigs, sheep, horses (from 2010 onwards: equids) and poultry. These agricultural structure surveys took place every other year for the years 1990 – 1996 and 1999 – 2007, in the year 2010 in the context of the more comprehensive 2010 agricultural census (LZ 2010), 2013, 2016 and 2020 in the context of the more comprehensive 2020 agricultural census (LZ 2020). The Surveys 1990, 1994 and 1996 referenced to 3 December, while the surveys 1999 – 2007 referenced to 3 May. The surveys 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020 referenced to 1 March. In addition to the agricultural structure surveys, annual animal head count censuses are carried out ([StatBA FS3 R4.1](/9%20Literature#statba-fs3-r41-statistisches-bundesamt-annual-reports)). Up to and including 1998 these censuses took place every six months for cattle and sheep (June, December), every four months for pigs (April, August, December), and in even years in December for all animal categories, i. e. also for horses and poultry. Reference day was always the third day of the respective month. Since 1999 the animal head count censuses for cattle and pigs take place two times a year: 3 May and 3 November. For sheep the reference day was 3 May in 1999 - 2009, 3 November in 2010, and 1 March in subsequent years. For cattle, pigs, and sheep official animal numbers are available for all years since 1990. This means that the inventories up to and including 1998 used the data collected in December (in June for sheep), while afterwards the inventories up to and including 2010 used the data from May (sheep: 1 March 2010 as no data were available in May or November). According to the Federal Statistical Office the animal numbers for the inventories from 2011 onwards have to be referenced to November. These figures are in keeping with the figures the Federal Statistical Office has provided to EUROSTAT. The change in the reference date (to 3 November) does not significantly affect the population figures of cattle and swine. Among the figures for sheep, livestock-population figures had to be corrected, see below. The numbers of goats in Germany were not surveyed between 1977 and 2010. Until 2004, the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) estimated goat populations at the national level. As of 2005, the pertinent time series was continued via estimation by the Federal Statistical Office. In 2010, the total number of goats was officially determined for the first time (reference day: 1 March), in the framework of the 2010 agricultural census (LZ 2010). That figure is considerably lower than the estimates used for earlier years. By agreement with the Federal Statistical Office, those estimates, which are also reported to EUROSTAT, continue to be used in the inventory. For 2013, 2016 and 2020 the Federal Statistical Office provided goat-population figures (reference day: 1 March). For horses/equids, and for poultry, population figures are available only at intervals of two to three years, from agricultural structure surveys (reference dates: 1990 - 1998, 3 December; 1999 – 2007, 3 May; 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020, 1 March). By agreement with the Federal Statistical Office, the population figures have not been adjusted to take account for the variations in reference dates. In previous surveys (in 2010 for the last time) significant numbers of poultry had not been counted as they were held by companies that did not need to report poultry numbers. Hence, the rules of poultry counting were adjusted for the 2013 survey. As a consequence, the official 2013 poultry numbers are much higher than to be expected after the trend in earlier years. As the Federal Statistical Office do not intend to correct poultry numbes of earlier years, the poultry numbers used in the inventory up to submission 2023 showed a steep upward trend between 2010 and 2013. This trend does not reflect any real development in poultry numbers. Since submission 2024 poultry numbers are therefore corrected, see below. ~~due to the different numbers of animals collected for 2010 and 2013. The increase in poultry numbers from 2013 to 2016 is significantly flatter.~~
For the calculation of the inventory, data gaps had to be closed and the given figures of animal places had partly to be modified to meet the requirements of emission reporting. This is discussed below, along with the way of how buffalo, asses and mules are accounted for.
# Data used in the inventory
......@@ -26,7 +28,9 @@ The official goat-population figures available for 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020 wer
In the inventory, horse numbers are subdivided into the two categories "heavy horses" and "light horses and ponies", to take account of the differences in emissions behaviour between the two categories. Since the agricultural census 2010 numbers of equids, rather than numbers of horses, were counted. The equid figures inseparable include the counts for mules and asses. Hence, as of the 2015 submission, the inventory no longer includes "mules and asses" as a separate category; until the year 2009, the counts for mules and asses were added to the counts for light horses and ponies. In keeping with data of the INTERESSENGEMEINSCHAFT FÜR ESEL UND MAULTIERE (Interest assocation for mules and asses – IGEM) (personal communication, B. Schmutz, 28 Sept 2009) the applicable number for mules and asses has been estimated at 8,500 mules and asses. Data gaps within the time series of the animal numbers are closed by linear interpolation. The animal numbers for 2021 and 2022 are estimated by extrapolating the trend between 2016 and 2020.
In official surveys including 2007, pullets up to the age of six months were counted, although in common husbandry practice pullets are considered laying hens when they complete their 18th week of life. For the inventory, therefore, a fraction of the pullets was shifted into the laying-hen category up to and including the year 2007. At the same time, the total sum of pullets and laying hens was not changed. The next official survey after 2007 took place in 2010. As of this survey the animal number shifting between both categories is no longer needed as the animals are now counted according to husbandry practice. For all poultry categories the data gaps in the time series are closed by linear interpolation. For 2021 the 2020 figures have been maintained, as extrapolation of trends between 2016 and 2020 would have led, at least in part, to implausible (partly negative) animal numbers in the next few years. For laying hens, the figures of 2021 and 2022 were estimated on the basis of the 2020 figures and the trends of data published by the Federal Statistical Office on number of housing places (see [Genesis data base](/9-Literature#statistisches-bundesamt)).
In official surveys including 2007, pullets up to the age of six months were counted, although in common husbandry practice pullets are considered laying hens when they complete their 18th week of life. For the inventory, therefore, a fraction of the pullets was shifted into the laying-hen category up to and including the year 2007. At the same time, the total sum of pullets and laying hens was not changed. The next official survey after 2007 took place in 2010. As of this survey the animal number shifting between both categories is no longer needed as the animals are now counted according to husbandry practice.
For all poultry categories the data gaps in the time series are closed by linear interpolation. After that ..... For 2021 the 2020 figures have been maintained, as extrapolation of trends between 2016 and 2020 would have led, at least in part, to implausible (partly negative) animal numbers in the next few years. For laying hens, the figures of 2021 and 2022 were estimated on the basis of the 2020 figures and the trends of data published by the Federal Statistical Office on number of housing places (see [Genesis data base](/9-Literature#statistisches-bundesamt)).
In the inventory, the official data for turkeys were broken down by the categories 'turkeys, males' and 'turkeys, females', for all years since 1990, to take account of the differences in emissions behaviour.
......