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Update 2.3 Animal Numbers authored by Cora Vos's avatar Cora Vos
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2-Input-data/2.3-Animal-Numbers.md
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......@@ -15,17 +15,17 @@ The Federal Statistical Office and the Statistical Agencies of the federal state
Since the calendar year 2008, cattle head counts have been taken from a special database ("origin-tracing and information system for animals" HIT - Herkunftssicherungs- und Informations­system für Tiere; http://www.hi-tier.de) in which every animal is registered. This leads to systematically higher animal head counts result for years from 2008 onwards as in the years before not all animals had been counted due to survey thresholds. A comparison carried out by the Federal Statistical Office for 2007 reveals that the cattle head counts shown in HIT are 2.9 % higher than those resulting via the conventional survey method (for dairy cows alone, the head counts are 2.8 % higher). Pursuant to the Federal Statistical Office, it is not possible to estimate the discrepancy for earlier years. Consequently, the cattle time series for 1990 to 2007 have not been adjusted. As a result, emissions from cattle husbandry are slightly underestimated for 1990 to 2007.
The numbers of dairy cows and male cattle > 2 years are taken directly from the statistics. Until 2007, the number of suckler cows also included the number of slaughter and beef cows (after that this category was no longer recorded separately). The calves in the inventory only include calves up to the age of 4 months. In the statistics, however, calves are recorded up to the age of 8 months (before 2008 up to the age of 6 months). Therefore, the number of animals from the remaining categories from the official statistics had to be converted, which also has an impact on the number of male beef cattle , female beef cattle and the dairy heifers newly introduced in the inventory from submission 2021 (for the definition of dairy heifers and female beef cattle, see [2.2](/2-Input-data/2.2-Formation-of-animal-subcategories)). The total number of other cattle in the inventory always corresponds to the total number of other cattle surveyed. As of 2013, the cattle numbers reported by the Federal Statistical Office according to various categories (calf, heifers, cow, etc.) also include a breakdown of the total number of cattle into breeds. It also mentions the sum of bison and buffalo. However, it is not possible to break down this sum in such a way that it could be divided between the various categories (calf, heifer, cow, etc.) (Spielmanns, Federal Statistical Office, personal communication, 2020). So there is no way to deduct the number of buffalo from the above. For this reason, the buffalo have not been listed as a separate category in the inventory since the 2015 submission (included elsewhere, IE); their emissions are included in the emissions from cattle. To do this, however, it was necessary to find an allocation of the buffalo to the cattle for the years before 2013. The Federal Statistical Office did not publish any buffalo figures for this period; however, the gap between 2000 and 2012 was closed by information from the German Buffalo Association, see Chapter [2.3.1](/2-Input-data/2.3-Animal-Numbers/2.3.1-Cattle#buffalo). Based on the recommendation in the final report on the ‘Initial Review under the Kyoto Protocol and Annual 2006 Review under the Convention’, the time series of the buffalo population at the national level for the years before 2000 was completed by linear extrapolation of the data from 2000 to 2012. (For the years 1990 to 1995 there were mathematically negative buffalo numbers, which were replaced by zeros.) Since there is no information about the structure of the buffalo population for all years up to 2012, all buffalos were added to the cattle category ‘suckler cows’ for this period. The justification of this procedure is demonstrated in Chapter [2.3.1](/2-Input-data/2.3-Animal-Numbers/2.3.1-Cattle#buffalo). The errors that may be associated with the above-described consideration of the buffalo in the cattle are assessed as negligible, since the ratio of buffalo to cattle numbers for the entire time series from 1990 onwards lies between zero and less than 0.1%.
The numbers of dairy cows and male cattle \> 2 years are taken directly from the statistics. Until 2007, the number of suckler cows also included the number of slaughter and beef cows (after that this category was no longer recorded separately). The calves in the inventory only include calves up to the age of 4 months. In the statistics, however, calves are recorded up to the age of 8 months (before 2008 up to the age of 6 months). Therefore, the number of animals from the remaining categories from the official statistics had to be converted, which also has an impact on the number of male beef cattle , female beef cattle and the dairy heifers newly introduced in the inventory from submission 2021 (for the definition of dairy heifers and female beef cattle, see [2.2](/2-Input-data/2.2-Formation-of-animal-subcategories)). The total number of other cattle in the inventory always corresponds to the total number of other cattle surveyed. As of 2013, the cattle numbers reported by the Federal Statistical Office according to various categories (calf, heifers, cow, etc.) also include a breakdown of the total number of cattle into breeds. It also mentions the sum of bison and buffalo. However, it is not possible to break down this sum in such a way that it could be divided between the various categories (calf, heifer, cow, etc.) (Spielmanns, Federal Statistical Office, personal communication, 2020). So there is no way to deduct the number of buffalo from the above. For this reason, the buffalo have not been listed as a separate category in the inventory since the 2015 submission (included elsewhere, IE); their emissions are included in the emissions from cattle. To do this, however, it was necessary to find an allocation of the buffalo to the cattle for the years before 2013. The Federal Statistical Office did not publish any buffalo figures for this period; however, the gap between 2000 and 2012 was closed by information from the German Buffalo Association, see Chapter [2.3.1](/2-Input-data/2.3-Animal-Numbers/2.3.1-Cattle#buffalo). Based on the recommendation in the final report on the ‘Initial Review under the Kyoto Protocol and Annual 2006 Review under the Convention’, the time series of the buffalo population at the national level for the years before 2000 was completed by linear extrapolation of the data from 2000 to 2012. (For the years 1990 to 1995 there were mathematically negative buffalo numbers, which were replaced by zeros.) Since there is no information about the structure of the buffalo population for all years up to 2012, all buffalos were added to the cattle category ‘suckler cows’ for this period. The justification of this procedure is demonstrated in Chapter [2.3.1](/2-Input-data/2.3-Animal-Numbers/2.3.1-Cattle#buffalo). The errors that may be associated with the above-described consideration of the buffalo in the cattle are assessed as negligible, since the ratio of buffalo to cattle numbers for the entire time series from 1990 onwards lies between zero and less than 0.1%.
For pigs as well, several of the categories used in official surveys have been modified with a view to obtaining maximally homogeneous animal categories. The official animal counts for piglets weighing up to 20 kg animal<sup>-1</sup>, and for young pigs and fattening pigs weighing at least 20 kg animal<sup>-1</sup>, have been converted, using the procedure described in [Haenel et al. (2011)](/9%20Literature#haenel-h-d-d%C3%A4mmgen-u-r%C3%B6semann-c-2011b), into animal counts for the inventory categories 'weaners' and 'fattening pigs'. This transformation of animal numbers has no impact on the total number of pigs. However, as the transformation algorithm uses animal weights, modifications of animal weights can lead to certain animal number trade-offs between the two categories 'weaners' and 'fattening pigs'. However, for purposes of emission calculation, the number of piglets weighing up to 8 kg is deducted from that total number. This is done for the reason that piglets weighing up to 8 kg are considered suckling piglets that, with regard to their emissions, are implicitly included in emission calculations for sows.
The official population numbers for sheep have been corrected for all years as of 2010 in order to take account of the change in the relevant survey date from spring (until 2009, May/June) to 1 March (2010) and to 3 November (since 2011). The correction compensates for the apparent reduction in the number of lambs that this change entails (as well as the corresponding reduction in the total number of sheep), see Chapter [2.3.3](/2-Input-data/2.3-Animal-Numbers/2.3.3-Small-ruminants).
The official goat-population figures available for 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020 were used to estimate the missing data for the interim years by linear interpolation. The animal numbers for 2021 are estimated by extrapolating the trend between 2016 and 2020.
The official goat-population figures available for 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020 were used to estimate the missing data for the interim years by linear interpolation. The animal numbers for 2021 and 2022 are estimated by extrapolating the trend between 2016 and 2020.
In the inventory, horse numbers are subdivided into the two categories "heavy horses" and "light horses and ponies", to take account of the differences in emissions behaviour between the two categories. Since the agricultural census 2010 numbers of equids, rather than numbers of horses, were counted. The equid figures inseparable include the counts for mules and asses. Hence, as of the 2015 submission, the inventory no longer includes "mules and asses" as a separate category; until the year 2009, the counts for mules and asses were added to the counts for light horses and ponies. In keeping with data of the INTERESSENGEMEINSCHAFT FÜR ESEL UND MAULTIERE (Interest assocation for mules and asses – IGEM) (personal communication, B. Schmutz, 28 Sept 2009) the applicable number for mules and asses has been estimated at 8,500 mules and asses. Data gaps within the time series of the animal numbers are closed by linear interpolation. The animal numbers for 2021 are estimated by extrapolating the trend between 2016 and 2020.
In the inventory, horse numbers are subdivided into the two categories "heavy horses" and "light horses and ponies", to take account of the differences in emissions behaviour between the two categories. Since the agricultural census 2010 numbers of equids, rather than numbers of horses, were counted. The equid figures inseparable include the counts for mules and asses. Hence, as of the 2015 submission, the inventory no longer includes "mules and asses" as a separate category; until the year 2009, the counts for mules and asses were added to the counts for light horses and ponies. In keeping with data of the INTERESSENGEMEINSCHAFT FÜR ESEL UND MAULTIERE (Interest assocation for mules and asses – IGEM) (personal communication, B. Schmutz, 28 Sept 2009) the applicable number for mules and asses has been estimated at 8,500 mules and asses. Data gaps within the time series of the animal numbers are closed by linear interpolation. The animal numbers for 2021 and 2022 are estimated by extrapolating the trend between 2016 and 2020.
In official surveys including 2007, pullets up to the age of six months were counted, although in common husbandry practice pullets are considered laying hens when they complete their 18th week of life. For the inventory, therefore, a fraction of the pullets was shifted into the laying-hen category up to and including the year 2007. At the same time, the total sum of pullets and laying hens was not changed. The next official survey after 2007 took place in 2010. As of this survey the animal number shifting between both categories is no longer needed as the animals are now counted according to husbandry practice. For all poultry categories the data gaps in the time series are closed by linear interpolation. For 2021 the 2020 figures have been maintained, as extrapolation of trends between 2016 and 2020 would have led, at least in part, to implausible (partly negative) animal numbers in the next few years. For laying hens, the figures of 2021 were estimated on the basis of the 2020 figures and the trends of data published by the Federal Statistical Office on number of housing places (see [Genesis data base](/9-Literature#statistisches-bundesamt)).
In official surveys including 2007, pullets up to the age of six months were counted, although in common husbandry practice pullets are considered laying hens when they complete their 18th week of life. For the inventory, therefore, a fraction of the pullets was shifted into the laying-hen category up to and including the year 2007. At the same time, the total sum of pullets and laying hens was not changed. The next official survey after 2007 took place in 2010. As of this survey the animal number shifting between both categories is no longer needed as the animals are now counted according to husbandry practice. For all poultry categories the data gaps in the time series are closed by linear interpolation. For 2021 the 2020 figures have been maintained, as extrapolation of trends between 2016 and 2020 would have led, at least in part, to implausible (partly negative) animal numbers in the next few years. For laying hens, the figures of 2021 and 2022 were estimated on the basis of the 2020 figures and the trends of data published by the Federal Statistical Office on number of housing places (see [Genesis data base](/9-Literature#statistisches-bundesamt)).
In the inventory, the official data for turkeys were broken down by the categories 'turkeys, males' and 'turkeys, females', for all years since 1990, to take account of the differences in emissions behaviour.
......@@ -35,11 +35,11 @@ Table 2 summarizes the resulting time series of national numbers of animal place
**Table 1: Reference dates of the surveys and methods of data gap filling used in the inventory**
![grafik](uploads/4c2e616747df573173338174d0a8c3db/grafik.png)
![grafik.png](uploads/b8f397292ea1bdf0d14489124608e914/grafik.png)
**Table 2: Number of animal places in the German emission inventory (in 1000, cattle including buffalo, horses including mules and asses)**
![grafik](uploads/1eed1b48ef251f12b2a9a8302032a00c/grafik.png)
![grafik.png](uploads/73d9044f48adc61c7e34031cf5fbc537/grafik.png)
# Comparison with livestock figures of the FAO
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