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Sub24 Update 2.3 Animal Numbers authored by Cora Vos's avatar Cora Vos
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......@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ The German inventory uses a time step of one year as there is no data available
# Official surveys
The Federal Statistical Office and the Statistical Agencies of the federal states carry out agricultural structure surveys in order to collect, along with other data, the head counts of cattle, pigs, sheep, horses (from 2010 onwards: equids) and poultry. These agricultural structure surveys took place every other year for the years 1990 – 1996 and 1999 – 2007, in the year 2010 in the context of the more comprehensive 2010 agricultural census (LZ 2010), 2013, 2016 and 2020 in the context of the more comprehensive 2020 agricultural census (LZ 2020). The Surveys 1990, 1994 and 1996 referenced to 3 December, while the surveys 1999 – 2007 referenced to 3 May. The surveys 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020 referenced to 1 March. In addition to the agricultural structure surveys, annual animal head count censuses are carried out ([StatBA FS3 R4.1](/9%20Literature#statba-fs3-r41-statistisches-bundesamt-annual-reports)). Up to and including 1998 these censuses took place every six months for cattle and sheep (June, December), every four months for pigs (April, August, December), and in even years in December for all animal categories, i. e. also for horses and poultry. Reference day was always the third day of the respective month. Since 1999 the animal head count censuses for cattle and pigs take place two times a year: 3 May and 3 November. For sheep the reference day was 3 May in 1999 - 2009, 3 November in 2010, and 1 March in subsequent years. For cattle, pigs, and sheep official animal numbers are available for all years since 1990. This means that the inventories up to and including 1998 used the data collected in December (in June for sheep), while afterwards the inventories up to and including 2010 used the data from May (sheep: 1 March 2010 as no data were available in May or November). According to the Federal Statistical Office the animal numbers for the inventories from 2011 onwards have to be referenced to November. These figures are in keeping with the figures the Federal Statistical Office has provided to EUROSTAT. The change in the reference date (to 3 November) does not significantly affect the population figures of cattle and swine. Among the figures for sheep, livestock-population figures had to be corrected, see below. The numbers of goats in Germany were not surveyed between 1977 and 2010. Until 2004, the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) estimated goat populations at the national level. As of 2005, the pertinent time series was continued via estimation by the Federal Statistical Office. In 2010, the total number of goats was officially determined for the first time (reference day: 1 March), in the framework of the 2010 agricultural census (LZ 2010). That figure is considerably lower than the estimates used for earlier years. By agreement with the Federal Statistical Office, those estimates, which are also reported to EUROSTAT, continue to be used in the inventory. For 2013, 2016 and 2020 the Federal Statistical Office provided goat-population figures (reference day: 1 March). For horses/equids, and for poultry, population figures are available only at intervals of two to three years, from agricultural structure surveys (reference dates: 1990 - 1998, 3 December; 1999 – 2007, 3 May; 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020, 1 March). By agreement with the Federal Statistical Office, the population figures have not been adjusted to take account for the variations in reference dates. In previous surveys (in 2010 for the last time) significant numbers of poultry had not been counted as they were held by companies that did not need to report poultry numbers. Hence, the rules of poultry counting were adjusted for the 2013 survey. As a consequence, the official 2013 poultry numbers are much higher than to be expected after the trend in earlier years. As the Federal Statistical Office do not intend to correct poultry numbes of earlier years, the poultry numbers used in the inventory up to submission 2023 showed a steep upward trend between 2010 and 2013. This trend does not reflect any real development in poultry numbers. Since submission 2024 poultry numbers are therefore corrected, see below. ~~due to the different numbers of animals collected for 2010 and 2013. The increase in poultry numbers from 2013 to 2016 is significantly flatter.~~
The Federal Statistical Office and the Statistical Agencies of the federal states carry out agricultural structure surveys in order to collect, along with other data, the head counts of cattle, pigs, sheep, horses (from 2010 onwards: equids) and poultry. These agricultural structure surveys took place every other year for the years 1990 – 1996 and 1999 – 2007, in the year 2010 in the context of the more comprehensive 2010 agricultural census (LZ 2010), 2013, 2016 and 2020 in the context of the more comprehensive 2020 agricultural census (LZ 2020). The Surveys 1990, 1994 and 1996 referenced to 3 December, while the surveys 1999 – 2007 referenced to 3 May. The surveys 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020 referenced to 1 March. In addition to the agricultural structure surveys, annual animal head count censuses are carried out ([StatBA FS3 R4.1](/9%20Literature#statba-fs3-r41-statistisches-bundesamt-annual-reports)). Up to and including 1998 these censuses took place every six months for cattle and sheep (June, December), every four months for pigs (April, August, December), and in even years in December for all animal categories, i. e. also for horses and poultry. Reference day was always the third day of the respective month. Since 1999 the animal head count censuses for cattle and pigs take place two times a year: 3 May and 3 November. For sheep the reference day was 3 May in 1999 - 2009, 3 November in 2010, and 1 March in subsequent years. For cattle, pigs, and sheep official animal numbers are available for all years since 1990. This means that the inventories up to and including 1998 used the data collected in December (in June for sheep), while afterwards the inventories up to and including 2010 used the data from May (sheep: 1 March 2010 as no data were available in May or November). According to the Federal Statistical Office the animal numbers for the inventories from 2011 onwards have to be referenced to November. These figures are in keeping with the figures the Federal Statistical Office has provided to EUROSTAT. The change in the reference date (to 3 November) does not significantly affect the population figures of cattle and swine. Among the figures for sheep, livestock-population figures had to be corrected, see below. The numbers of goats in Germany were not surveyed between 1977 and 2010. Until 2004, the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) estimated goat populations at the national level. As of 2005, the pertinent time series was continued via estimation by the Federal Statistical Office. In 2010, the total number of goats was officially determined for the first time (reference day: 1 March), in the framework of the 2010 agricultural census (LZ 2010). That figure is considerably lower than the estimates used for earlier years. By agreement with the Federal Statistical Office, those estimates, which are also reported to EUROSTAT, continue to be used in the inventory. For 2013, 2016 and 2020 the Federal Statistical Office provided goat-population figures (reference day: 1 March). For horses/equids, and for poultry, population figures are available only at intervals of two to three years, from agricultural structure surveys (reference dates: 1990 - 1998, 3 December; 1999 – 2007, 3 May; 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2020, 1 March). By agreement with the Federal Statistical Office, the population figures have not been adjusted to take account for the variations in reference dates. In previous surveys (in 2010 for the last time) significant numbers of poultry had not been counted as they were held by companies that did not need to report poultry numbers. Hence, the rules of poultry counting were adjusted for the 2013 survey. As a consequence, the official 2013 poultry numbers are much higher than to be expected after the trend in earlier years. As the Federal Statistical Office do not intend to correct poultry numbes of earlier years, the poultry numbers used in the inventory up to submission 2023 showed a steep upward trend between 2010 and 2013. This trend does not reflect any real development in poultry numbers. Since submission 2024 poultry numbers are therefore corrected, see below.
For the calculation of the inventory, data gaps had to be closed and the given figures of animal places had partly to be modified to meet the requirements of emission reporting. This is discussed below, along with the way of how buffalo, asses and mules are accounted for.
......@@ -48,18 +48,18 @@ Table 2 summarizes the resulting time series of national numbers of animal place
# Comparison with livestock figures of the FAO
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) publishes worldwide animal numbers in its internet database [FAOSTAT](/9-Literature#fao-food-and-agriculture-organization-of-the-united-nations). The German data in FAOSTAT basically come from the Federal Statistical Office in Germany, the data source that is also the basis for the German inventory. However, for cattle, pigs, sheep, goats, horses and poultry, the comparison of FAOSTAT data (looked up 15 August 2022: time series 1990 - 2020) and the data used in the 2024 submission shows numerous deviations: between 1990 and 2020 only about 13 % of the FAOSTAT data is consistent with the German data (even though animal numbers rounded to 100 animals are taken into account).
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) publishes worldwide animal numbers in its internet database [FAOSTAT](/9-Literature#fao-food-and-agriculture-organization-of-the-united-nations). The German data in FAOSTAT basically come from the Federal Statistical Office in Germany, the data source that is also the basis for the German inventory. However, for cattle, pigs, sheep, goats, horses and poultry, the comparison of FAOSTAT data (looked up 7 August 2023: time series 1990 - 2021) and the data used in the 2024 submission shows numerous deviations: between 1990 and 2021 only about 13 % of the FAOSTAT data is consistent with the German data (even though animal numbers rounded to 100 animals are taken into account).
The main reasons for the sometimes big differences between FAOSTAT and the German data are mainly entries in FAOSTAT under false years and an seemingly unsystematic FAOSTAT approach to the closure of data gaps. In the following the main findings of the data comparison are listed.
Cattle: The FAOSTAT animal numbers only agree with the official German data in the years 2014 - 2020. Before the year 2000, the FAOSTAT figures are shifted by one year compared to the German figures. For example, the German cattle number of 1998 is found in FAOSTAT under 1999. In the years 2011 - 2013 FAOSTAT contains the data of the May census, while the inventory uses the data of the November census as required by EU regulations (see above).
Cattle: The FAOSTAT animal numbers only agree with the official German data in the years 2014 - 2021. Before the year 2000, the FAOSTAT figures are shifted by one year compared to the German figures. For example, the German cattle number of 1998 is found in FAOSTAT under 1999. In the years 2011 - 2013 FAOSTAT contains the data of the May census, while the inventory uses the data of the November census as required by EU regulations (see above).
Pigs: The FAOSTAT numbers of pigs are generally not to be compared with the number of pigs in the inventory, because in the inventory, for methodological reasons, the number of suckling piglets (i. e. piglets weighing less than 8 kg) is subtracted. If one compares the FAOSTAT numbers with the pig numbers of the Federal Statistical Office before deduction of the suckling pigs, then, as with the cattle in the FAOSTAT numbers before 2000, there is a misalignment of one year. Except for the years 2011-2013, when the FAOSTAT numbers are the numbers of the May census (while the inventory uses data from the November census according to EU regulations), there is high agreement between the animal numbers; however, a match can be found only for the years 2001 - 2003 and 2007 – 2009 (taking into account the rounding to 100 animals).
Pigs: The FAOSTAT numbers of pigs are generally not to be compared with the number of pigs in the inventory, because in the inventory, for methodological reasons, the number of suckling piglets (i. e. piglets weighing less than 8 kg) is subtracted. If one compares the FAOSTAT numbers with the pig numbers of the Federal Statistical Office before deduction of the suckling pigs, then, as with the cattle in the FAOSTAT numbers before 2000, there is a misalignment of one year. Except for the years 2011-2013, when the FAOSTAT numbers are the numbers of the May census (while the inventory uses data from the November census according to EU regulations), there is high agreement between the animal numbers.
Sheep: In the years 1991, 1993 - 2000 and 2005 - 2009 the FAOSTAT figures are very similar to the data of the German Federal Statistical Office; however, a match is only available for the years 2007 – 2009 (taking into account the rounding to 100 animals). In the years 1990 – 1992, 1993 and 2001 - 2004 there are, to some extent, larger deviations that can not be explained with available information. As of 2010, a comparison of the two time series is not possible, as the officially revised sheep numbers are corrected in the inventory.
Goats: The FAOSTAT goat numbers are offset by one year compared to the German figures for the years 1991 – 2002. For example, the FAOSTAT goat number of 1991 reflects the German goat number of 1990. For the years 1990, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2013 and 2016, the FAOSTAT figures are in line with the German figures. In the intervening years, when Germany did not collect or estimate any data, FAOSTAT states data which must be estimated, even though FAOSTAT says it is official data. These estimates are particularly implausible as of 2011, as they run counter to the trends estimated by linear interpolation between the years of known goat numbers.
Horses (including asses and mules): The FAOSTAT figures before 2010 are the pure horse numbers without asses and mules. The inventory numbers, on the other hand, also include asses and mules. Subtracting, for a comparison of FAOSTAT and inventory numbers, the asses and mules from the inventory numbers, one finds that the FAOSTAT numbers are shifted by one year compared to the German figures. In addition, as a rule, the level of the animal numbers differs. From 2005, there is a correspondence between FAOSTAT and the German data only for the years 2013 and 2016. In the years between 2005 and 2016, in which Germany did not collect data, the FAOSTAT estimates show, as with goats, an implausible time course.
Horses (including asses and mules): The FAOSTAT figures before 2010 are the pure horse numbers without asses and mules. The inventory numbers, on the other hand, also include asses and mules. Subtracting, for a comparison of FAOSTAT and inventory numbers, the asses and mules from the inventory numbers, one finds that the FAOSTAT numbers are shifted by one year compared to the German figures. In addition, as a rule, the level of the animal numbers differs. From 2005, there is a correspondence between FAOSTAT and the German data only for the years 2013 and 2016. After 2017 FAOSTAT does not list numbers of horses for Germany. In the years between 2005 and 2016, in which Germany did not collect data, the FAOSTAT estimates show, as with goats, an implausible time course.
Poultry: In almost all years with animal counts, poultry numbers are largely consistent between FAOSTAT and German data (1994, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016). The animal counts of 1990, 1996 and 2001 appear in FAOSTAT under 1991, 1997 and 2002, respectively. The closure of data gaps in FAOSTAT from 2010 onwards is as implausible as with goats and horses, yielding an erratic time course from 2010 onwards.
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Poultry: In almost all years with animal counts, poultry numbers are largely consistent between FAOSTAT and the uncorrected German data (1994, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016). After 2017 FAOSTAT does not list numbers of poultry for Germany. The animal counts of 1990, 1996 and 2001 appear in FAOSTAT under 1991, 1997 and 2002, respectively. The closure of data gaps in FAOSTAT from 2010 onwards is as implausible as with goats and horses, yielding an erratic time course from 2010 onwards.
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